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People and Their Problems
Statistical Literacy: WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?, By Rajiv Gupta, 15 December 2023 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 15 December 2023
Statistical Literacy
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
By Rajiv Gupta
Suppose you take your temperature on two successive
days. On the first day it is 98.2 degrees, on the second day it is 98.8
degrees. What would you infer from these readings? More importantly, what
course of action would be warranted as a result? A lot of people take notice
and act on information not very different from the example cited above. We
often read items in newspapers with statistics to make a point. The numbers
could be about the economy, the number of accidents, or the crime rate, etc. We
read the numbers but not everyone reflects on what the numbers mean. Numbers
convey meaning and it is up to the reader to discern the meaning. Let us take
an example.
A leading English national daily had a
news item titled: “Fatal Accidents Down, Traffic Cops Cite Proactive
Measures” on November 14, 2023, which gave statistics of road accidents in
Delhi from 2019 to 2023 (up to October 31). There were 1433 fatal accidents in
Delhi in 2019, 1163 in 2020, 1206 in 2021, 1428 in 2022, and 1141 up to October
31 in 2023. The Delhi Traffic Police cited these numbers to convey that there
was a 4.7 per cent reduction in fatal accidents between 2022 and 2023 and that
was due to proactive measures taken by the police. Is this a correct claim? Does
it mean that in 2024 we should expect a further reduction in fatal road
accidents?
Statistics can either convey relevant
information which can lead to sound decisions, or they could be misinterpreted
leading to action when none is warranted. In the temperature example at the
beginning of the article, it should be clear that no action needs to be taken.
Why? Because typical human temperatures fluctuate in a range, the range
depending on the individual circumstances. If any medication is taken because
the body temperature reaches 98.8, it can lead to undesirable side-effects. Similarly,
we need to examine the data in the newspaper article. The observations will be
valid not just for the article but for a host of numbers seen in newspapers, television,
and other media.
The reason we should not start
medicating ourselves when the body temperature reaches 98.8 is because body
temperature has a natural range of variation. This variation is due to various
factors such as the ambient temperature, our clothing, what we may have eaten,
whether we have just exercised, etc. Dr. W.E. Deming, noted statistician and
management guru who helped the Japanese industry become world leaders, called
this natural variation caused by “common causes.” If the statistic (in this
case the body temperature) is within some defined limits, no action is
required. But if it goes outside these limits, then Deming said that we need to
investigate and possibly take action. So once the body temperature crosses, say
100 degrees, it may be a sign that one needs to see a doctor.
Returning to the accident data, If we
plot the data points, something interesting emerges.
What does the graph tell us? Should we
conclude that some specific action resulted in a decrease in accidents? Or does
it look like random variations in data which do not reveal any specific pattern
or trend? Even without defining any limits which would indicate any unusual
pattern of behaviour, it is easy to see that the number of accidents over the five-year
period reported in the article is relatively stable. Not many people would
interpret the reduction from the fourth to the fifth year as remarkable.
A natural question which a reader can
ask is “So what?” What is the harm in misreading natural variation and taking
action to compensate for any effect that we feel necessary? Is it necessary for
the problem to get big before we act on it? Should we not ward of problems by
taking preventive measures?
Deming wrote that if the data only shows
natural or random variation, any action in response to a change from one period
to the next would make the system unstable with the potential to increase the
variation in the data. In the case of the body temperature example given in the
beginning of this article, most healthcare professionals agree that unnecessary
medication to counter random changes in the body temperature can lead to
problems. We should take steps to improve one’s health such as eating well and
exercise. But action should not be taken to counter a slight blip in the body
temperature.
Similarly, in the case of accidents, the
authorities ought to take systemic actions to reduce the overall incidence of
accidents. Actions such as better patrolling, better lighting, better road
maintenance, etc. should result in a reduction in accidents. But these actions
should not be taken as a knee-jerk reaction to a slight change in one year’s
accident data.
According to Deming, any unnecessary
intervention based on short term changes in data would make the system
unstable, with higher highs and lower lows. However, when the change is
significant, i.e., the data crosses the limits beyond the natural variation,
investigation into the cause of that occurrence is warranted and action needs
to be taken. In the body temperature analogy, if the temperature were to cross
100 degrees, it often signals an infection for which some treatment becomes
necessary.
Examples of misguided overreaction to
data are seen in several walks of life. Perhaps one of the more glaring
examples is when a company announces a drop in the sales or profit number
compared to the previous quarter or year. The immediate reaction of the stock
market is to selling of the stock which often leads to a drop in its price.
Sales and profits of organizations do not always go up in a straight line. Any
panic selling of a company’s stock in response to a poor quarter or year is
unwarranted as long as the company remains healthy.
This article was written to emphasise
the need to develop literacy in reading statistical data. Data is important for
managing organisations, communities, and nations. However, collecting data
involves time and cost. Therefore, we need to make sure that the data is put to
proper use. In addition to the cost of collecting data, incorrect reaction to random
fluctuations in the data can lead to worsening the system. The message should
be clear. We need a better understanding of how to interpret statistical data.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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VILE DISINFORMATION ON KASHMIR, By Inder Jit, 13 December 2023 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 13 December
2023
VILE DISINFORMATION ON
KASHMIR
By Inder Jit
(Released on 3 July 1990)
Public memory is
proverbially short. It seems to be even shorter in regard to the Kashmir
developments, especially those preceding and following
independence. This is not only so among our masses but also among those who
should know better, both at home and abroad. Pakistan has taken full advantage
of this ignorance in the past and is continuing to do so even today to spread
vile disinformation. A case in point is Pakistan’s renewed demand for a
plebiscite in Kashmir. Most of our commentators have justifiably faulted
Pakistan in the matter. Pakistan has none but itself to
blame for the non-implementation of the UN resolution advocating a free and
impartial plebiscite. Yet Islamabad and its spokesmen at the UN, world
capitals and even in New Delhi are again accusing India of having impeded the
functioning of the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP)
through “machinations” and thereby prevented “the implementation of the resolutions
calling for plebiscite to which it was, and continues to be, a party.”
In a cleverly-worded letter in a New Delhi daily,
the Pakistan High Commission stated the other day: “The provisions of the UN
resolutions envisaged the demilitarization of Jammu and Kashmir... The
withdrawal of the armed forces on the two sides had to be so coordinated in
timing as not to place either side at a disadvantage and to prevent any
possibility of the resumption of fighting. Thereafter, the stage would have
been set for holding a free and impartial plebiscite. On its part, Pakistan
secured the withdrawal of all tribesmen from Jammu and Kashmir, and in the
meeting of representatives of the two parties convened by UNCIP in March 1949
suggested a framework within which the High Commands of the two armies could
work a detailed and synchronized withdrawal programme, indicating that the
completion of the Pakistani troops’ withdrawal would be achieved within three
months. But the Indian side blocked discussions for synchronized withdrawal;
nor did it submit any plan of its own for joint discussions and agreement.
India’s machinations...”
What are the facts? The UNCIP came forward on
August 13, 1948, with a resolution which was accepted by India on August 20,
1948 and by Pakistan late in December, 1948. This resolution was in three
parts. Part I related to the Cease-fire Order, Part II to the Truce Agreement
and Part III to reaffirmation by India and Pakistan “that the future status of
Jammu and Kashmir would be determined in accordance with the will of the
people.” Part I was implemented speedily. A cease-fire was brought about through
separate and simultaneous orders of the High Commands of India and Pakistan in
accordance with Part I which, importantly, also provided: “The High Commands of
Indian and Pakistani forces agree to refrain from taking any measures that
might augment the military potential of the forces under their control in the
State of Jammu and Kashmir. (For the purpose these proposals, forces under
their control shall be considered to include all forces, organized and
unorganized fighting or participating in hostilities on their respective
sides.) But Part II relating to a Truce Agreement never came to be implemented.
Why? Before attempting an answer, we would do well
to recall the crucial Part II, the preamble of which states: “Simultaneous with
the acceptance of the proposal for immediate cessation of hostilities as
outlined in Part I, both Governments accept the following principles as a basis
for the formulation of a truce agreement, the details of which shall be worked
out in discussion between their representatives and the Commission.” The rest
of Part II consists of three parts: A, B and C. Part A reads: “1. As the
presence of troops of Pakistan in the territory of the State of Jammu &
Kashmir constitutes a material change in the situation since it was represented
by the Government of Pakistan before the Security Council, the Government of
Pakistan agrees to withdraw its troops from the State. 2. The Government of
Pakistan will use its best endevour to secure the withdrawal from the State of
Jammu & Kashmir of tribesmen and Pakistan nationals not normally resident
therein who have entered the State for the purpose of fighting. 3. Pending a
final decision, the territory evacuated by the Pakistani troops will be
administered by the local authorities under the surveillance of the Commission.”
Part B reads: “1. When the Commission shall have
notified the Government of India that the tribesmen and Pakistan nationals
referred to in Part II A 2 hereof have withdrawn, thereby terminating the
situation which was represented by the Government of India to the Security
Council as having occasioned the presence of Indian forces in the State of
Jammu & Kashmir, and further, that the Pakistan forces are being withdrawn
from the State of Jammu & Kashmir, the Government of India agrees to begin
to withdraw the bulk of its forces from the State in stages to be agreed upon
with the Commission. 2. Pending the acceptance of the conditions for a final
settlement of the situation in the State of Jammu & Kashmir, the Indian
Government will maintain within the lines existing at the moment of the
cease-fire the minimum strength of its forces which in agreement with the
Commission are considered necessary to assist local authorities in the
observance of law and order. The Commission will have observers stationed where
it deems necessary. 3. The Government of India will undertake to ensure that
the Government of the State of Jammu & Kashmir will take all measures within
its power to make it publicly known that peace, law and order will the
safeguarded and that all human and political rights will be guaranteed.”
We need to remember
the initial and basic fact of Pakistani aggression, which Islamabad and its
propagandists conveniently forget. This, as Nehru emphasised in the Lok Sabha
on March 29, 1956, was important “because everything subsequently flowed from
it.” The
UNCIP recognised this basic fact in its aforementioned resolution of August 13,
1948 which proposed: “As the presence of troops of Pakistan in the territory of
the State of Jammu & Kashmir constitutes a material change in the situation
since it was represented by the Government of Pakistan before the Security
Council, the Government of Pakistan agrees to withdraw its troops from the
State.” Nehru added: “The point to remember is that because of this admission
of aggression, the first thing that the Commission required was that Pakistan
should withdraw its forces from the area of the State occupied by it. We were
asked to withdraw the bulk of forces later, that is, on Pakistan withdrawing
from that area... The right of our Army to be there was recognised but it was
stated that since Pakistan was withdrawing completely... India also could
reduce her forces... to bring about a better atmosphere...”
Pakistan was required
under Part II A 2 “to secure the withdrawal from Jammu & Kashmir of
tribesmen and Pakistani nationals not normally resident therein who have
entered the State for the purpose of fighting.” But this was not done. What is
worse, the entire scheme of militarisation under Part II B was jeopardised by
Pakistan through a fraud perpetrated by it not only on India but also on the
Security Council. New Delhi and the Security Council were suddenly confronted
with a new issue in regard to the demilitarisation of the state --- the
disbanding and disarming of the “Azad Kashmir Forces”, forces which Pakistan
had all along denied were there. (These forces were armed, equipped and
officered by Pakistan and comprised some 35 battalions.) The UNCIP resolution
of August 13, 1948, contained no reference to these forces, constraining India
to tell the UN in March 1953 that it would not have accepted the UNCIP
resolution of August 13, 1948 had it been aware of their existence. It would
have insisted on the disarming and disbanding of these “Azad Forces” in the
truce agreement.
There is no truth whatsoever in Pakistan’s renewed
charge that India had “blocked discussions for synchronised withdrawal”, and it
did not “submit any plan of its own for joint discussions and agreement.” In
fact, an identical accusation was made by Mr Feroze Khan Noon in the Security
Council in 1957. But Mr Krishna Menon effectively rebutted it. He conceded in
the Security Council that India and Pakistan had agreed early in March 1949 to
submit their plans for the withdrawal of their respective forces. But it was
not true that India “first asked for more time and later refused to honour this
agreement.” He quoted UNCIP’s Third Interim Report of December 3, 1949 to
assert that the Commission had on March 28, 1949 “received the Government of
India's views.” India had then conveyed its preparedness to accept a period of
three months for the complete withdrawal of Pakistan forces. Its memorandum
also contained a suggested schedule for the withdrawal of Indian forces. But it
declined to disclose its own programme to Pakistan until a satisfactory
agreement had been reached regarding the withdrawal of Pakistan forces and the
replacement of the “Azad Kashmir Forces” by a Civil Armed Force.
Pakistan has also tried to confuse opinion on the
plea that it had sought a balanced and “synchronised withdrawal” of Indian and
Pakistani forces. Not many, however, remember that the UNCIP itself had
rejected Pakistan’s view (a) that the objective of the truce agreement was to
create a military balance between the forces on each side and (b) that the
withdrawal of its regular forces depended upon plans acceptable to the Pakistan
Government for the synchronisation of this withdrawal with the bulk of the
Indian forces. The UNCIP candidly told Pakistan that “no simultaneity was
intended” and that “synchronisation would be arranged between the respective
High Commands and the Commission.” Further, Pakistan troops were required to
withdraw in advance of the Indian troops and their withdrawal was not
conditional on Pakistan’s agreement to the plan of the Indian withdrawal. In
the final analysis, Pakistan calculatedly blocked the implementation of the UNCIP
resolution as it clearly saw Jammu & Kashmir affirming its accession to
India. There is no other explanation for the way Pakistan mixed up its alphabet
and insisted on the implementation of Part B of the resolution before Part A! Islamabad
cannot fool all the people all the time. --- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Fossil Fuels & De-Carbonisaton: NATIONS DIVIDED AT COP28, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 14 December 2023 |
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Open
Forum
New Delhi, 14 December 2023
Fossil Fuels
& De-Carbonisation
NATIONS DIVIDED
AT COP28
By Dhurjati
Mukherjee
Controversy took centre stage at COP28 with
many countries resisting the term for the first time for a global phase-out of
fossil fuels, which account for three-quarters of greenhouse gas emission,
leading to global warming. Hectic efforts were made to change the draft phrase ‘phase
out’ to “reducing consumption and production of fossil fuels, in an equitable
manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the
science”. The pressure came from coal and oil producing countries, including India.
However, the EU and the US were reported
to be disappointed and wanted stronger language to be used. India, on its part,
has been trying to reduce CO2 emissions, including methane emissions
by 2030 with sufficient progress made in increasing production and use of
renewable energy. In a Germanwatch report in the environmental realm,
India’s performance showed significant improvement from 31st rank in
2004 to 7th in 2023. The country maintained its top 10
position, figuring among the highest performers for the fifth year in a row.
The draft includes concerns that the
goal of developed nations to mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 in the
context of transparency on implementation was not met in 2021. Climate finance
has been another contentious issue like in the past two-three conferences as
the developed world has failed to keep its commitments.
An important outcome of COP28 was a new
loss and damage fund for the poorest and most vulnerable countries which would help
them deal with the irreversible impact of climate disaster. Host country UAE
and Germany both pledged $100m (£79m) to this start-up fund, which will aim to
keep up with the rising costs caused by extreme weather and slow-onset
disasters such as sea level rise, ocean acidification and melting glaciers. The
initial funding of close to $300m – including £60m from the UK, $24.5m from the
US and $10m from Japan – is a much-needed boost for the agreement.
Pledging money raises hopes but only
when it’s translated into reality will results are positive. According to OECD,
the estimate of climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries
in 2020 was about $83 billion, whereas Oxfam in its ‘Climate finance shadow
report’ noted that the amount was merely $21-24.5 billion. Thus there’s need
to scale up resources several times through enhanced provision and mobilisation
by the developed world, as pointed Union Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav
at the summit.
Regarding emissions, both the US and
China lead the race with 40%, followed by India, the Russian Federation and
Japan. But the situation has been changing as developing countries are rapidly
moving towards industrialisation as well as urbanisation. There is also a
trend, somewhat similar to the Western world, where over consumption of the
wealthiest and increased industrialisation has been exacerbating emissions in
the Third World.
Reports indicate that the top emitting
countries of the future could come from the developing world – Brazil, India,
South Africa and Indonesia. Their challenges are quite serious as they must encounter
the twin problems of preserving environment while lifting hundreds of people
out of poverty, and these get acute in their quest for industrialisation and
urbanisation. Whatever may the targets be, the ability to control global
emissions or move towards a net-zero goal in the next two decades appear to be
an impossibility. There is lack of political courage to bend the emission curve
by enforcing laws and regulations. Therefore, there’s a dire need to examine
the high levels of pollution, specially air, being witnessed in India. Though
attempts are being made for a transition to a low-carbon economy, the task is
arduous, given the country is an agro-based economy, and stubble burning is a
challenge.
Reports reveal that India emits around
5.2 million tonnes of PM 2.5 annually not accounting dust from construction. Further,
53% comes from biomass burning and industrial activities. Burning of
agricultural residues has hit headlines several times as the problem continues
in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
India’s greenhouse gas emissions from
crop residue burning increased 75% over the past decade with MP accounting for
the second largest area under fires after Punjab, as per satellite-based study
by researchers at Indian Institute of Science Education & Research, Bhopal.
While it’s well known that stubble fires in Punjab and Haryana play a major
role in early winter episodes of air pollution over the NCR, the study,
covering 602 districts, revealed an exponential rise in the farm area burnt in
MP and other states outside the Indo-Gangetic plains.
The other critical air pollution is from
industrial effluents, which in most countries are strictly monitored and
regulated. But not in India. The industrial segment is the second largest
contributor of PM 2.5. and most States are casual in acting. Though in recent
times its changing, there’s need for stricter monitoring of environmental
regulations.
Meanwhile, reports that the world is
likely to witness a 4-7-fold increase in heat-related deaths by mid-century is
a cause of concern. The Lancet’s new global projections report last year
warned that individuals were, on average, exposed to 86 days of
health-threatening high temperature of which 60% were made at least twice as
likely to occur because of human caused climate change. The governments are to blame.
Projections of a 20C hotter world reveal a bleak future and are a reminder that the scale of
mitigation efforts has been grossly inadequate.
Similarly, another more depressing
picture emerged from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) which warned that the
world is on track to witness a 2.5-2.9-degree Celsius temperature rise above
pre-industrial levels if all the current pledges under the Paris Agreement are
implemented by 2030. This was not foreseen by experts few years back as such
temperature rise would lead to devastating consequences of climate change in terms
of frequent extreme weather events in this century. The report revealed there’s
no change, emissions in 2030 will be 22 gigatonnes higher than the 1.50 C
limit allows. The UN Secretary General rightly attributed this to a “failure of
leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed
opportunity”.
It needs to be reiterated that
decarbonisation must happen in every aspect of our lives from deploying
greening solutions for heavy polluters to better monitoring so that
environmental regulations are complied with. For decades, India has been
dealing with the problem of development versus climate change. However, though
carbon intensity may be reduced by 25-30% by 2030, the zero-emission target by
2050 may be difficult or rather impossible to keep.
With the current pressure on reducing
dependence on fossil fuels, India, China and many other emerging countries will
have to think afresh in evolving their development strategy. India faces a big
challenge with huge developmental needs, having such a vast population whose
living standards must be improved at a faster pace and thus energy needs would
continue to increase. How India and other countries would reduce dependence on
fossil fuels remains to be seen. ----INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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India’s Kashmir: THE ROAD AHEAD, By Poonam I Kaushish, 12 December 2023 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 12 December
2023
India’s Kashmir
THE ROAD AHEAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
The stars of BJP seem to be on an ascend.
After winning Assembly elections in the Hindu heartland Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, its 5 August 2019 decision to abrogate
Article 370 and scrap Jammu & Kashmir’s special status was unanimously upheld
by Supreme Court Monday. Notwithstanding, agony
in some, anguish in others and anxiety in few of the erstwhile State’s regional
Parties.
Ending, decades’ long debate, the
Court directed restoration of Statehood “at the earliest” and Assembly elections
by September next. Terming it as only a ‘transitional provision’ the CJI-headed
five judge Bench said, “Article 370 was a temporary provision to ease J&K’s
merger with India.”
The Court also endorsed validity to
bifurcate the State into two Union territories --- J&K and Ladakh. Adding, “J&K
does not retain any element of sovereignty after execution of Instrument of
Accession and issuance of 25 November 1949 proclamation by which Indian Constitution
was adopted. Article 370 was a feature of asymmetric federalism and not
sovereignty.”
Hailing it as historic, Prime Minister Modi asserted, “The
verdict has given new strength to unity and integrity of India and is a beacon
of hope, progress and unity.” Predictably, Abdullah’s NC, Mufti’s PDP lamented,
“ Our political and legal fight will continue, on hopes that one day in future
we will get our lost glory that was snatched from us.”
As for the anti-BJP Opposition INDIA
combine, the abrogation could become a thorn in its flesh, beginning with their
upcoming seat-sharing talks in Delhi next week.
Its J&K partners would want a unified stand despite Supreme Court’s
verdict. To buy time the combine could
appoint an experts' committee to study its implications and way forward.
That apart, over the last three years there has been a 78%
decline in terrorism in J&K. Over 187 terrorists were killed and 111
counter-terror operations were carried out in 2022. Of these, 130 were local
terrorists and 57 foreign. Underscored, by a record 26.7 lakh tourist arrivals
in 2022, highest in the last three decades.
Post the verdict, New Delhi is confident that its measures
to amalgamate Kashmiris into the mainstream will bear fruit. Namely, extending reservation
in State Government posts and educational institutions to socially and
educationally backward classes to help eradicate discrepancies suffered by
them, along-with allowing people to contest and vote in nagar palika and panchayat.
Besides, Modi Sarkar is
leaving no stone unturned to plug Kashmir deeper into the economy and create
more broad-based stakeholders in the Valley who will benefit from greater
economic interactions with the rest of India. It has put in place various developmental
projects. Towards that end investment summits are being held. In fact, the G20 Presidency gave Government
opportunity to showcase the salubrious splendour of Srinagar by hosting
programmes there.
With the ban on outsiders living,
working and buying property lifting, Kashmir is slowly but surely ushering greater
business investment like IT to relocate to the region, promote world class
tourist facilities and build new infrastructure for modern industries. Bollywood,
Telugu and Tamil film industries have returned to the region thereby ushering a
new era.
Even as there is a tourism boom, Government needs to be
sensitive to locals needs. Certainly, a lot depends on intensified movement of
people for business and investment from across India. Given J&K’s social
and economic indicators are much better than UP, Bihar etc, it will require
sophisticated interventions to leapfrog development.
It remains to be seen if people will
be appeased by promises of development as growth is not the biggest grievance of
Kashmiris. It is the unacceptable heavy veil of security forces which makes it difficult
to win people over.
More than more of
the same, money, men and muscle what Kashmir needs is an emotional package, a
parcel that will allow Kashmiris specially youth weaned by Pakistan to give
vent to their grief and frustration, anger and even hatred. A wrap up which
will treat them with respect, restore their dignity and heal accumulated
humiliations. India needs to connect with Kashmiris.
Despite provocation
by Pakistan and its agents to ensure any emotional connect does not take place
and a veil of security, happily Srinagar is abuzz with youth strolling down Dal
Lake or women shopping at Lal Chowk late at night. BJP and allies are sending
student delegations to visit Kashmir and spend time with Gen Next listening to
them. Certainly, there will be bad eggs, but one hopes Kashmiris will not spurn
a genuine hand of friendship or treat it with violence.
For the medium term,
Government needs to put in place an educational package, not only formal but
educating people of Kashmir’s reality. Example: Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir aka Azaad
Kashmir, Pakistan has sold the idea that Azaad Kashmir is really azaad. But this is a lie.
Clearly, New Delhi
needs to deal with the unfolding situation sympathetically. Think. Kashmir
accounts for 15.8% of the area and 54.9% population, Jammu for 25.9% area and
42.9% population while Ladakh has 2.2% population but 58.3% area. However, when
the State Constituent Assembly was constituted Sheikh Abdullah arbitrarily
carved out 43 seats for Kashmir, 30 for Jammu region and two for Ladakh. The
defunct State Assembly had allocated 46 seats to Kashmir, 37 to Jammu and 4 to
Ladakh.
Underscoring, the stark anomalies in
the size of constituencies for the Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha. The average
number of voters and area per seat in the Kashmir region is far less than that
in Jammu and Ladakh. This was rectified by the Delimitation Commission which
allocated 6 more seats to Jammu totalling 43 seats and 1 to Kashmir (47) taking
the total tally to 90 seats. Consequently, Jammu
which will now have a greater political say and play in J&K politics.
With Supreme Court upholding the
abrogation of Article 370 it is time for Modi-Shah to arrive at a Modus Vivendi with locals by gathering
lost threads from the baggage of chequered history and keeping ones ears to the
ground. What would be the stake and role of J&K and Ladakh in the
immediate? The answer lies in the womb of future. The need of the hour is
imagination, innovation and impetus.
Remember, Kashmir is not a place where destiny seems to
shadow events like a madman with a razor in his hand. Nor a toy to be
frittered, twisted, discarded or dumped. It is a national issue, which
transcends political planks, ideology, philosophy and thesis. Modi has to leave
no ‘stone’ unturned to further its national interests and make Kashmiris’ truly
feel they belong to India. The Kashmiris’ too need to rise to the occasion.
Modi has been promising to abide by his slogan Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishwaas
and deliver jannat in Kashmir’s
paradise. He needs to take the leap of faith, apply balm and connect with Kashmiris,
plug inequities and injustice and lay a platform for a stronger and cohesive
J&K. It remains to be seen if he can get the cherry blossom to truly bloom
again and make the Kashmir dream a new reality. It is a long haul to
everlasting peace. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Glitter Is Not Gold: FM’s DATA, REALITY VARIES, By Shivaji Sarkar, 11 December 2023 |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 11 December 2023
Glitter
Is Not Gold
FM’s
DATA, REALITY VARIES
By
Shivaji Sarkar
Union Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman has projected a promising economy that could take the country to a
path of glory with huge capital expenditure and rising deficits that is
showcased politically to charm the voters. She was partially correct during a
short duration discussion on the state of the economy in the Rajya Sabha. But
despite efforts, deficits remain high, exports drop, rupee slides and
government measures such as high cess on petrol, rechristened additional excise
duties, and tolls have not added to the ease of the people.
Occasional growth, such as in
the second quarter of the year at 7.6 percent being termed as India being the
fastest-growing major economy may cheer up countrymen, but it is not a solution
to the overall economic situation. Despite increase in estimated GDP to Rs
41.74 lakh crore in 2023-24, against Rs 38.78 lakh crore last fiscal or 6.2
percent, the Reserve Bank of India’sgrowth estimates remain unchanged at 6.5
percent in September quarter.
India’s growth is not constant
but seasonal, often to cater to the festive mood. Most world economies are
taking corrective steps before that. It seems as per the RBI, an economy is on
fire facing persistent threat of food inflation and severe constriction on farm
level prices, both considered extremes. It calls for easing of policies
and firming of the dollar that makes imports expensive.
The minister compared
achievements with developed countries and their growth. The Indian economy
despite its large size has yet to match the growth parameters of France,
Germany, UK, the US or China, though many of them are in slowdown. Their
economies are larger. Even a small growth is substantial than what India could
achieve.
Much of the inflation is
because of government policies such as maintaining high petrol prices despite a
longer period of soft international prices. Despite Israel-Gaza or
Russia-Ukraine wars, the crude oil prices have slumped to $70 a barrel and may
fall further as western economies, particularly the US sees a glut of oil owing
to the slowdown. Instead of a demand of 2 million barrels, it remains at
594,000 barrels. The slowing global economy is impacting Indian exports.
While the benefits of low oil
prices are not being passed on to the consumers in India, it has led to an inflationary
economy. The Indian GST is high. Organisations such as the National Highway
Authority of India (NHAI), have taken advantage to jack up road toll rates
atrociously. Toll collections have increased to Rs 48028 crore in 2022-23
from Rs 33907 crore last year and Rs 17942 crore in 2017-18. This is hurting
the economy, including farmers’ input and transportation costs, according to
the Statista site.
Since July 2022, the government
has reduced petrol cess on exports of Reliance and Nyara but none for the poor
domestic consumers. It remains at Rs 32.90 per litre of diesel and petrol.
Petro road cess collection was Rs 4.55 lakh crore in 2020-21 as per a reply in
the Rajya Sabha by Minister of State Rameshwar Teli. By 2023, it can be assumed
to have risen further. There is now a diversion of funds from the cess for
other purposes.
Allocations for education and
health have been cut and insurance premia allowed to rise by 30 percent.Farmers
finding prices unremunerative have been destroying many vegetable crops,
including cauliflower, onion and tomato during the season, though prices of
many commodities spiralled in the retail market.
The Opposition charged the
government with being cut off from the ground realities during the discussion
following a notice from TMC’s Derek O’Brien. Former Finance Minister P
Chidambaram said it was “jobless growth”. Ram Gopal Yadav of Samajwadi Party alleged
the ruling members were only indulging in propaganda and publicity. Of 194
nations, India is at 133 in the growth index even though it is the fifth
largest economy. AITC’s Jawhar Sircar said in 2022 India’s youth unemployment
rate was 23.22 per cent, which was even higher than 11.3 per cent of Pakistan,
12.9 per cent in Bangladesh and 14.4 percent of Bhutan.
Sitharaman says that
investments in infrastructure and productive capacity have a larger multiplier
effect on growth and employment. The 2023-24 Union Budget steeply increased the
capital expenditure outlay by 37.4 percent to Rs 10 lakh crore. It is being
spent to demolish government buildings, railways stations, National Museum,
National Archives and others.
This apart, reckless
constructions of roads and other supposed infrastructure have had a heavy toll
in the Himalayan states facing severe devastation. Various construction lobbies
are preventing the government from reviewing vast delicate areas in
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and northeastern parts of the country, including
the newly built railways and sinking of Halflong rail stations. Himachal has
demanded over Rs 5000 crore to mitigate the damages.
While periodic renovation of
buildings is necessary, rebuilding for the sake of it without a discussion with
the people or other stakeholders necessarily does not mean that it would
achieve the stated objective. The supposed rail upgradation to Vande Bharat and
ignoring the usual trains again made the Railways go back to basics and restore
the number of general coaches and improve upkeep of ordinary sleeper bogeys.
The Railways are also realising that dynamic fare disrupts the lives of average
travellers and creates a myth about higher earnings.
The Budget notes that revenue
expenditure is estimated to grow by 1.2 percent at Rs. 35.02 lakh crore in
2023-24 over Rs. 34.59 lakh crore. Major components of revenue expenditure
include interest payments, defence revenue expenditure, and transfers to States
in the form of Finance Commission grants, centrally sponsored schemes, etc.
Grants to Central autonomous bodies are a substantial part of the Central sector
schemes.
Sitharaman says India’s
national debt has increased from $1595 billion in 2018 to $3288 billion in 2023
and projected to rise to $4816 billion by 2028. Outstanding government debt and
other liabilities are rising to Rs 169.46 lakh crore in March 2024 from Rs
152.69 lakh crore in March 2023. Though this is considered manageable, its
servicing costs are high. The government needs to review various projects for
their utility. Interest payments are estimated to be Rs 10.80 lakh crore, 30.8
percent of the total revenue expenditure. The fiscal policy statement
highlighted the total expenditure as Rs. 45.03 lakh crore in 2023-24; increase
of 7.5 percent over 2022-23. The states are to get about Rs 10.21 lakh crore.
Despite India growing at a
better pace than Pakistan and Sri Lanka, neighbouring Bangladesh and Vietnam
have overtaken it!---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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